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upgradeClassic tool

Upgrade Chance Calculator

See the odds of landing at least one upgrade after repeated attempts and estimate 50%, 90%, 95% and 99% milestones.

Use this upgrade chance calculator to estimate your real success odds when every attempt keeps the same rate. It works well for game upgrades, reforges, enchantments, crafting, enhancement systems and any repeated action where you keep rolling until something finally lands.

Enter the single-attempt success rate and the number of tries. The tool returns the chance of getting at least one upgrade, the chance of missing every attempt, the expected number of successes and a quick estimate of how many tries are usually needed to approach 50%, 90%, 95% and 99% confidence.

This kind of calculation is useful when you want to plan resources, compare routes and understand when a small per-try rate becomes acceptable after many attempts. The result assumes independent attempts with the same probability every time.

Useful for upgrades, enchantments, rerolls, reforges and any system that repeats the same success chance over time.

Important assumption: every attempt is independent and uses the same success rate.

SummaryEnter the chance per attempt and the number of attempts to calculate.
Chance of at least one success—
Chance of failing every attempt—
Expected successes—
Average attempts for 1 success—
Attempts to get near 50%—
Attempts to get near 90%—
Attempts to get near 95%—
Attempts to get near 99%—
Formula used—

Use clear inputs to get a more useful result.